Market innovations: Solid state batteries

The boom in battery electric vehicles (BEV) is the result of ideals promoted by governments, regulations and business ethics. So far, there is no one BEV capable of meeting consumer needs in the same way as an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, and based on announced roadmaps from automakers, there is no sign that one will emerge by 2030.

Features

It's not an easy task to develop a BEV which, like current ICE vehicles, can be refueled in three minutes, have a range of 1.000 km on a full tank, benefit from sufficient infrastructure and can easily be operated for at least 10 years. However, the emergence of all-solid-state batteries could disrupt the current situation and greatly accelerate the market adoption of BEV.

When lithium-ion batteries, widely used in smartphones and other miniaturized electronic devices, are used in automotive applications, they place much higher demands on safety and battery life.

At the same time, there is a trade-off between improvements in range, which essentially require an increase in energy density, and safety/durability. This trade-off is the main reason why the performance of current lithium-ion batteries is seen as a possibly insurmountable barrier to the increased market uptake of electric vehicles.

Solid-state batteries have the potential to overcome these problems. Solid state batteries have a long history. Solid electrolytes were developed in the 70s, but insufficient ionic conductivity limited their application. However, solid electrolytes with similar or superior ionic conductivity to liquid electrolytes have recently been discovered, accelerating research and development efforts.

The car manufacturers

At the 2017 Tokyo Motor Show, Toyota announced a target for commercialization of BEV entirely solid-state in the first half of the 20s. Although the first generation of BEV which will use all-solid-state batteries which is expected to be launched by Toyota will only have a limited production volume, the company's announcement will undoubtedly spur more efforts by many companies, researchers and government entities in the development of all solid-state batteries .

Volkswagen, Hyundai Motor and Nissan Motor have all announced investments in start-up companies, so we believe this is a topic likely to benefit from much increased attention.

Potential of solid-state batteries

Current lithium-ion batteries consist of the cathode, an electrolyte solution, a separator and an anode. The difference in a solid state battery is that the electrolyte is solid. In fact, all components and materials are solid, hence the “solid state” terminology.

The properties of solid-state batteries depend on the materials used, but research to date reveals a clear potential in terms of safety, resistance to leakage, resistance to burning (simplified cooling structure), miniaturization, design flexibility in terms of formation direct contact of the cell layer, relatively long discharge cycle life, no degradation due to good high/low temperature properties, short charge times, high energy density and high power density.

In the past, low power density has been seen as a weakness of solid-state batteries, but the Tokyo Institute of Technology and Toyota's research team have jointly developed a solid-state battery with three times the power density and twice the energy density of existing lithium-ion batteries. We believe all solid-state batteries have the potential to overcome the disadvantages of electric vehicles.

Impact of market penetration of solid-state batteries

The major impacts of solid-state batteries on the automotive industry include an acceleration in the market uptake of BEV and changes in the battery supply chain BEV. Six BEV would replace ICE vehicles, there would be no need for engines, transmissions and related parts, but there would be a new need for batteries, inverters, motors and parts related to these systems.

For conventional automobile assemblers, who produce engines and drivetrains in-house, making sure they have the capability to develop all-solid-state batteries in-house is an important source of added value. For suppliers, it will be important to review elementary technologies to develop new components.

If there is an increase in market adoption of BEVNationwide rules governing things like taxes, energy policy and resources are also likely to change.

A switch from liquid to solid-state lithium-ion batteries would also mean a switch from liquid to solid electrolytes and a decrease in the need for separators, and there would be potential for using new materials for cathodes and anodes.

The materials used in the all-solid-state batteries that Toyota will launch in the first half of 2020 are likely to be similar to those used currently, and as production volumes are reduced, the impact on the current supply chain is also likely to be small. However, if we see material progress in R&D efforts, all-solid-state batteries available in the second half of the 2020s and 2030s are likely to be disruptive.

Barriers to market uptake of solid-state batteries

There has been talk of a bias towards i BEV, but the current market consensus is that we are now in an era of “powertrain diversification” rather than the coming of age of BEV as such. However, we believe that if efforts to develop mass production of all-solid-state batteries are successful, the era of BEV it could be close.

Even so, a number of problems would need to be overcome. Research and development aimed at mass production of all solid-state batteries has just begun, and to what extent production costs will decrease is not yet clear. In theory, there should be significant cost reduction potential given the simplification of battery packs and the use of low-cost electrode materials.

On the other hand, if there is greater-than-expected progress in improving the performance of lithium-ion batteries and greater cost reductions, the transition to all-solid-state batteries could be delayed.

Future

There is also the risk that interest in i BEV themselves may fade due to developments in hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and standard ICE vehicles, the well-to-wheels debate and the renewed popularity of diesel vehicles, which could mean weakening development efforts for all batteries solid state.

From the point of view of range and the time required to refuel with hydrogen, fuel cell vehicles are another potential competitor. While infrastructure issues are an issue, there is considerable potential in terms of replacing fossil fuels and transporting energy.

KPMG's 2018 Global Automotive Executive Survey ranked fuel cell vehicles as the top key trend through 2025 and BEV ranked 3rd according to global automotive executives. In 2017, the same poll turned the tables, with i BEV in first place and fuel cell vehicles in third place.

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